Our new analysis reveals that global temperature projections by 2100 now fall into three distinct bands depending on policy implementation: 2.5-2.9°C under current policies alone, 2.3-2.6°C with 2035 NDCs, and 1.8-2.2°C when countries meet both their near-term commitments and long-term net-zero targets.
Released on 27 January 2026, the day that the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement takes effect, our assessment of the latest 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions shows that global emissions are projected to peak this decade and that aggregate commitments broadly reaffirm linear pathways to mid-century goals.
While the opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C without overshoot has likely passed, the gap between current 'just below 2°C' projections and pathways consistent with '1.5°C with a short and shallow overshoot' defines the global mitigation challenge, requiring both enhanced and earlier targets and the policies needed to implement them. Implementation in this decade remains critical.
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A 2-page summary is here
