Pre-COP30: how are temperatures tracking on the latest climate targets?

Around 125 countries have now submitted, announced or described plans for 2035 emissions reduction goals in the last 12 months. These build on the near-term, 2030 and long-term targets previously announced by 198 Parties to the Paris Agreement. Our modelling shows that the best estimate of projected warming is 1.9°C (1.8°C-2.0°C) if all targets are met in full, and overall there is no backsliding from current policies and from the constraints that they impose on future emissions. This is marked progress relative to the 3°C-plus pathways implied by targets in 2016 when the Paris Agreement was signed. All elements of the NDCs need to be delivered, so that the 1.8°C end of the targeted range can be achieved. Implementation of a credible and ambitious agenda towards COP31 that delivers the ambitious end of NDCs, can maintain feasible options for closing the gap towards 1.5°C. Full report here.