We synthesise results from global and country-level modelling. We use these to derive changes in the physical economy that limit warming to a specified level, such as 1.5°C or 2°C. We focus on pathways for the energy sector and energy-intensive sectors such as transport, steel and cement globally and in major economies. We turn these pathways into policy and investment insights to inform action.
Decarbonisation Futures
Sectoral decarbonisation pathways to provide a roadmap for the decades ahead
We provide sectoral decarbonisation pathways consistent with limiting warming to specific levels, such as 1.5°C
As the world focuses on how to translate goals into actions that will limit warming and deliver on commitments, there is a growing call for better analysis of sectoral pathways and tradeoffs. A better understanding of the pace at which demand for coal, oil and gas declines, and the capacity of renewable energy and and clean energy technology grows, will reduce stranded assets and social costs, and underpin policy and investment decisions. It is essential given the scale of the transition.
It is also now possible. The quality of information is improving rapidly. Scenario results are reported more frequently, and greater sectoral and geographic resolution.
Climate Resource derives pathways that provide a global roadmap of sectoral transition consistent with achieving warming limits. We translate these into pathways that are actionable at the national and sectoral level. The methodology integrates results from the most-up-to-date information available from:
- Global scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAM)s produced by the global science and policy communities
- Country and sector specific studies
- Real-world performance tracking
Our derived global pathway for renewable energy capacity to 2035 and beyond to 2050 is illustrated above.
Examples of translation to national action are work on:
Our capability is built around three core Climate Resource strengths:
- Long-standing experience and expertise working with climate models, emissions data, and IAM scenario results
- Close collaboration with relevant policy and academic networks internationally and
- Capacity to source, curate, and interpret data from major emitters, ensuring the outputs are credible and contextually appropriate.
For clients, this capability translates complex transition pathways into clear, decision-ready insights by country and sector. Policymakers gain access to credible, temperature-aligned pathways, helping to translate global goals into practical, context-specific action in high-emitting sectors like power, steel, and cement. Investors and financial institutions can better evaluate transition risk, assess portfolio alignment, and identify green investment opportunities, supporting compliance with frameworks like TCFD and ISSB
Methodology
Our global pathways start from scenario ensembles produced by integrated assessment models (IAMs). These underpin global climate policymaking, providing the scientific foundation for identifying viable mitigation pathways We
- Derive the variable of interest from reported variables in discussion with IAM teams as needed.
- Process results using a rolling-quantile regression to capture the non-linear relationship between peak warming and key scenario variables. This approach maximises use of available data and allows sectoral pathways for key variables under peak warming at specified limits (such as 1.6°C, 1.7°C). We generate median and interquartile ranges for each variable and country in five-year steps from 2020 to 2040, with annual values interpolated.
- Evaluate industry data, and country specific projections as needed to contextualise these and translate into sectoral and national insights for major emitting sectors.
Licensing and availability
In addition to public briefs, we derive sectoral decarbonisation pathways at the relevant sectoral or sub-sectoral and geographic resolution for specific initiatives and for clients. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com if you are interested in discussing this further.