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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Vanuatu’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 20–29% above 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Vanuatu’s 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 0.6 Mt CO2-e/yr.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 20–29% above 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
594kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Aug 2022GWP unclear
2035 target
500kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025GWP unclear
2050 target
624kt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in May 2023GWP unclear
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 0.6 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Vanuatu, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
485
kt CO₂-eq
2024
536
kt CO₂-eq
+11% vs 2019
2030 · projected
454
kt CO₂-eq
−6% vs 2019
2035 · projected
343
kt CO₂-eq
−29% vs 2019
2050 · projected
624
kt CO₂-eq
+29% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: A 23.4% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
594 kt CO₂-eq
With support
454 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Aug 2022
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 31.4% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
500 kt CO₂-eq
With support
343 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 0.6 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
624 kt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in May 2023
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Vanuatu has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
2030
Conditionally: A 30.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2016
2030
Conditionally: A 30.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Mar 2021
2030
Conditionally: A 23.4% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Aug 2022
Active
2030
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: A 23.4% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2035
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 31.4% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · May 2023
Active
2050
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 0.6 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.