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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Brazil’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions between 3% below and 14% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Brazil’s 2035 pledge: 59.0% below 2005 levels.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is between 3% below and 14% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
1,199Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2023AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
841 – 1,045Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2024AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2023AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2035 pledge: 59.0% below 2005 levels.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Brazil, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
1,158
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
1,247
Mt CO₂-eq
+8% vs 2019
2030 · projected
1,019
Mt CO₂-eq
−12% vs 2019
2035 · projected
1,323
Mt CO₂-eq
+14% vs 2019
2050 · projected
278
Mt CO₂-eq
−76% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 48.4% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
1,319 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2023
Unconditionally: 53.1% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
1,199 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2023
Unconditionally: 59.0–67.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
841 – 1,045 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2024
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2023
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Brazil has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
20252030
Unconditionally: 37.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 43.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Sep 2016
20252030
Unconditionally: 37.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 43.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Apr 2022
20252030
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 37.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Nov 2023
Active
202520302050
Unconditionally: 48.4% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 53.1% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Nov 2024
Active
2035
Unconditionally: 59.0–67.0% below 2005 levels.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.