Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading China’s factsheet
NDC Quantification
China’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 3–6% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
China’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 3–6% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
10,442 – 10,792Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021Not specified (only CO2 covered)
2035 target
12,874 – 13,303Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target China has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for China, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
13,746
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
15,585
Mt CO₂-eq
+13% vs 2019
2030 · projected
14,940
Mt CO₂-eq
+9% vs 2019
2035 · projected
14,583
Mt CO₂-eq
+6% vs 2019
2050 · projected
7,657
Mt CO₂-eq
−44% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: 65.0% reduction of emission intensity compared to the emissions intensity in 2005.
Unconditional
10,442 – 10,792 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021
Unconditionally: 7.0–10.0% below 2024 levels.
Unconditional
12,874 – 13,303 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025
Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: A custom target, approximated as: Net zero emissions. Coverage: only CO2. The high end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: all gases.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “Not specified (only CO2 covered)”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy China has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Jun 2015
2030
Unconditionally: Between 60.0% and 65.0% reduction of emission intensity compared to the emissions intensity in 2005.
NDC · Sep 2016
2030
Unconditionally: Between 60.0% and 65.0% reduction of emission intensity compared to the emissions intensity in 2005.
NDC · Oct 2021
Active
2030
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: 65.0% reduction of emission intensity compared to the emissions intensity in 2005.
NDC · Nov 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: 7.0–10.0% below 2024 levels.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Oct 2021
Active
2060
Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: A custom target, approximated as: Net zero emissions. Coverage: only CO2. The high end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: all gases.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.