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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading Russian Federation’s factsheet
NDC Quantification
Russian Federation’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions between 10% below and 35% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Russian Federation’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions between 10% below and 35% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
1,724Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2020AR4, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
1,576 – 1,625Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
633Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Sep 2022AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Russian Federation has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Russian Federation, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
2,057
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
2,145
Mt CO₂-eq
+4% vs 2019
2030 · projected
2,860
Mt CO₂-eq
+39% vs 2019
2035 · projected
2,776
Mt CO₂-eq
+35% vs 2019
2050 · projected
1,833
Mt CO₂-eq
−11% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 1990 levels.
Unconditional
1,724 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2020
Unconditionally: 33.0–35.0% below 1990 levels.
Unconditional
1,576 – 1,625 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: An absolute target of 630.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
633 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Sep 2022
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Russian Federation has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Apr 2015
2030
Unconditionally: 25.0–30.0% below 1990 levels.
NDC · Nov 2020
Active
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 1990 levels.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
20352060
Unconditionally: 33.0–35.0% below 1990 levels. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Sep 2022
Active
2050
Unconditionally: An absolute target of 630.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.