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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
3,188 – 3,321Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Apr 2021 · supersededAR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
2,242 – 2,572Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2024AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Nov 2021AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
Every target United States has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for United States, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
6,629
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
6,240
Mt CO₂-eq
−6% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 61.0–66.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
2,242 – 2,572 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2024
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Nov 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy United States has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Mar 2015
20202025
Unconditionally: 26.0–28.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 17.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Sep 2016
20202025
Unconditionally: 26.0–28.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 17.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Apr 2021
20252030
Unconditionally: 26.0–28.0% below 2005 levels. Unconditionally: 50.0–52.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Dec 2024
Active
2035
Unconditionally: 61.0–66.0% below 2005 levels.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Nov 2016
2050
Unconditionally: 80.0% below 2005 levels.
LT-LEDS · Nov 2021
Active
2050
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.