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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Tonga’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 40% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Tonga’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 40% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
105kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2020 · superseded2006 IPCC Guidelines
2035 target
158kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 20252006 IPCC Guidelines
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Tonga has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Tonga, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
238
kt CO₂-eq
2024
247
kt CO₂-eq
+4% vs 2019
2030 · projected
164
kt CO₂-eq
−31% vs 2019
2035 · projected
142
kt CO₂-eq
−40% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.1 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
74 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.1 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
158 kt CO₂-eq
With support
50 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
“2006 IPCC Guidelines”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Tonga has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Dec 2015
NDC · Sep 2016
20202030
Unconditionally: A 10.3% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Unconditionally: A 14.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Dec 2020
2030
Unconditionally: 13.0% below 2006 levels.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
20302035
Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.1 Mt CO2-e/yr. Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.1 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Nov 2021
Active
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.