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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Sri Lanka’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 71% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Sri Lanka’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 71% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
36Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
38Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2021 · supersededGWP unclear, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Sri Lanka has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Sri Lanka, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
34
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
36
Mt CO₂-eq
+5% vs 2019
2030 · projected
37
Mt CO₂-eq
+9% vs 2019
2035 · projected
37
Mt CO₂-eq
+10% vs 2019
2050 · projected
9.8
Mt CO₂-eq
−71% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
An absolute target of 35.9 (unconditional) to 27.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
36 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
27 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
An absolute target of 37.9 (unconditional) to 27.5 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
38 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
28 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
With support
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2023
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Sri Lanka has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Apr 2016
NDC · Sep 2016
NDC · Jul 2021
2030
A 7.5% (unconditional) to 27.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2021
20302050
A 7.5% (unconditional) to 27.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
20302035
An absolute target of 35.9 (unconditional) to 27.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr. An absolute target of 37.9 (unconditional) to 27.5 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Jun 2023
Active
2050
Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.