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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
South Africa’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 74–94% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
South Africa’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 74–94% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
358Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2021SAR, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
321 – 381Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Sep 2020AR4
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target South Africa has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for South Africa, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
502
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
522
Mt CO₂-eq
+4% vs 2019
2030 · projected
470
Mt CO₂-eq
−6% vs 2019
2035 · projected
412
Mt CO₂-eq
−18% vs 2019
2050 · projected
133
Mt CO₂-eq
−74% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of between 398.0 and 510.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
478 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
409 – 524 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2021
Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of between 350.0 and 420.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
358 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
361 – 433 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2021
Conditionally: An absolute target of between 320.0 and 380.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
321 – 381 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2025
Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: only CO2. The high end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: all gases.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Sep 2020
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “SAR”: gases aggregated using IPCC Second Assessment Report 100-year global warming potentials. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy South Africa has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
20252030
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 398.0 and 614.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Nov 2016
20252030
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 398.0 and 614.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Sep 2021
Active
20252030
Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of between 398.0 and 510.0 Mt CO2-e/yr. Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: An absolute target of between 350.0 and 420.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Oct 2025
Active
2035
Conditionally: An absolute target of between 320.0 and 380.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Sep 2020
Active
2050
Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: only CO2. The high end of ambition is: Net zero emissions. Coverage: all gases.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.