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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Saudi Arabia’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 14–34% below 2019 levels by 2030.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Saudi Arabia’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 14–34% below 2019 levels by 2030.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
479 – 618Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021GWP unclear
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Saudi Arabia has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Saudi Arabia, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
722
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
809
Mt CO₂-eq
+12% vs 2019
2030 · projected
618
Mt CO₂-eq
−14% vs 2019
2035 · projected
610
Mt CO₂-eq
−16% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 479.0 and 618.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
479 – 618 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 415.0 and 582.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
424 – 595 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2025
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Saudi Arabia has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Nov 2015
2030
Unconditionally: An absolute target of 546.1 Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Nov 2016
2030
Unconditionally: Between unchanged business-as-usual emissions and a 14.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Oct 2021
Active
2030
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 479.0 and 618.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Dec 2025
Active
2040
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between 415.0 and 582.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.