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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Samoa’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 6–164% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Samoa’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 6–164% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
449kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021GWP unclear
2035 target
392kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jan 20262006 IPCC Guidelines, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Samoa has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Samoa, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
479
kt CO₂-eq
2024
493
kt CO₂-eq
+3% vs 2019
2030 · projected
279
kt CO₂-eq
−42% vs 2019
2035 · projected
1.3
Mt CO₂-eq
+164% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 12.6% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
493 kt CO₂-eq
With support
431 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021
Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: 26.0% below 2007 levels.
Unconditional
449 kt CO₂-eq
With support
260 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021
Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
392 kt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jan 2026
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses. “2006 IPCC Guidelines”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Samoa has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Nov 2015
NDC · Apr 2016
NDC · Jul 2021
Active
20252030
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 12.6% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Unconditionally: Unchanged business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: 26.0% below 2007 levels.
NDC · Jan 2026
Active
2035
Conditionally: An absolute target of 0.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.