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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading Rwanda’s factsheet
NDC Quantification
Rwanda’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 27–45% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Rwanda’s 2035 pledge: A 53.3% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 27–45% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
10Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2020GWP unclear
2035 target
26Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2035 pledge: A 53.3% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Rwanda, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
12
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
13
Mt CO₂-eq
+11% vs 2019
2030 · projected
7.5
Mt CO₂-eq
−38% vs 2019
2035 · projected
18
Mt CO₂-eq
+45% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
A 16.0% (unconditional) to 38.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
10 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
7.5 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2020
A 6.6% (unconditional) to 53.3% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
26 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
13 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2025
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Rwanda has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
NDC · Oct 2016
NDC · May 2020
Active
2030
A 16.0% (unconditional) to 38.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Nov 2025
2035
A 7.0% (unconditional) to 53.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Dec 2025
Active
2035
A 6.6% (unconditional) to 53.3% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.