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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Philippines’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 20% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Philippines’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 20% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
340Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Apr 2021 · supersededGWP unclear
2035 target
201Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Philippines has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Philippines, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
240
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
281
Mt CO₂-eq
+17% vs 2019
2030 · projected
258
Mt CO₂-eq
+7% vs 2019
2035 · projected
191
Mt CO₂-eq
−20% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Conditionally: A 70.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
With support
78 Mt CO₂-eq
From the INDC submitted in Oct 2015
An absolute target of 201.2 (unconditional) to 39.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
201 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
39 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “2006 IPCC Guidelines”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Philippines has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Oct 2015
Active
2030
Conditionally: A 70.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Apr 2021
2030
A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 339.5 (unconditional) to -72.0 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
NDC · Sep 2026
Active
2035
An absolute target of 201.2 (unconditional) to 39.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.