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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Panama’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 48% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Panama’s 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of -15.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 48% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
16Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jun 2024AR5
2035 target
26Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5
2050 target
21Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jun 2024 · supersededAR5
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
The 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of -15.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Panama, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
22
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
25
Mt CO₂-eq
+14% vs 2019
2030 · projected
23
Mt CO₂-eq
+6% vs 2019
2035 · projected
24
Mt CO₂-eq
+11% vs 2019
2050 · projected
11
Mt CO₂-eq
−48% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 11.5% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
16 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
14 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jun 2024
A 11.0% (unconditional) to 17.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
26 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
24 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Conditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of -15.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
−15 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2024
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Panama has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
NDC · Apr 2016
INDC · Apr 2016
NDC · Dec 2020
20302050
Conditionally: A 11.5% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: A 24.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Jun 2024
Active
20302050
Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 11.5% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Unchanged business-as-usual emissions (unconditional) to a 24.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2035
A 11.0% (unconditional) to 17.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Jun 2024
Active
2050
Conditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of -15.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.