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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
New Zealand’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 34–43% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
New Zealand’s 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 25.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 34–43% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
42Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2021AR5
2035 target
39 – 42Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jan 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
18 – 26Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Nov 2021AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 25.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for New Zealand, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
83
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
75
Mt CO₂-eq
−9% vs 2019
2030 · projected
42
Mt CO₂-eq
−49% vs 2019
2035 · projected
70
Mt CO₂-eq
−16% vs 2019
2050 · projected
55
Mt CO₂-eq
−34% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
42 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2021
Unconditionally: 51.0–55.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
39 – 42 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jan 2025
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between 17.7 and 25.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
18 – 26 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Nov 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy New Zealand has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Jul 2015
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Oct 2016
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Nov 2021
Active
2030
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Jan 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: 51.0–55.0% below 2005 levels.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Nov 2021
Active
2050
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between 17.7 and 25.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.