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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Nepal’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions between 35% below and 32% above 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Nepal’s 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 29.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is between 35% below and 32% above 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
51Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
61Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
−6 – 30Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021GWP unclear
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2050 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 29.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Nepal, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
52
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
52
Mt CO₂-eq
0% vs 2019
2030 · projected
63
Mt CO₂-eq
+20% vs 2019
2035 · projected
57
Mt CO₂-eq
+9% vs 2019
2050 · projected
69
Mt CO₂-eq
+32% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
An absolute target of 51.4 (unconditional) to 42.9 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
51 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
43 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2025
An absolute target of 61.5 (unconditional) to 45.4 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
61 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
45 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in May 2025
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between -5.7 and 29.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
−6 – 30 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “GWP unclear”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Nepal has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Feb 2016
NDC · Oct 2016
NDC · Dec 2020
2030
Conditionally: A 2.5% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · May 2025
Active
20302035
An absolute target of 51.4 (unconditional) to 42.9 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr. An absolute target of 61.5 (unconditional) to 45.4 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Oct 2021
Active
2050
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between -5.7 and 29.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.