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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Mexico’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 30–36% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Mexico’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 30–36% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
697Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2022AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
366 – 407Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Mexico has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Mexico, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
763
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
761
Mt CO₂-eq
0% vs 2019
2030 · projected
767
Mt CO₂-eq
0% vs 2019
2035 · projected
485
Mt CO₂-eq
−36% vs 2019
2050 · projected
266
Mt CO₂-eq
−65% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
30.0% (unconditional) to 35.0% - 40.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
697 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
597 – 647 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2022
An absolute target of 364.0 - 404.0 (unconditional) to 332.0 - 363.0 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
366 – 407 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
334 – 365 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025
Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: In 2060: Net zero emissions. The high end of ambition is: In 2050: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2000 levels.
Unconditional
186 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Nov 2016
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Mexico has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Mar 2015
2030
A 25.0% (unconditional) to 40.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2016
2030
A 25.0% (unconditional) to 40.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Dec 2020
2030
A 22.0% (unconditional) to 36.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Nov 2022
Active
2030
30.0% (unconditional) to 35.0% - 40.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Nov 2025
Active
203520502060
An absolute target of 364.0 - 404.0 (unconditional) to 332.0 - 363.0 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr. Unconditionally: A target range. The low end of ambition is: In 2060: Net zero emissions. The high end of ambition is: In 2050: Net zero emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Nov 2016
Active
2050
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2000 levels.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.