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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading Madagascar’s factsheet
NDC Quantification
Madagascar’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 22% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Madagascar’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 22% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
−78Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026AR6, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
−55Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026AR6, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Madagascar has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Madagascar, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
36
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
38
Mt CO₂-eq
+4% vs 2019
2030 · projected
32
Mt CO₂-eq
−12% vs 2019
2035 · projected
28
Mt CO₂-eq
−22% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
An absolute target of -78.4 (unconditional) to -87.4 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
−78 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
−87 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026
An absolute target of -55.3 (unconditional) to -71.8 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
−55 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
−72 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2026
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR6”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR6 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Madagascar has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
2030
Conditionally: A 14.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2016
2030
Conditionally: A 14.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Jan 2024
2030
0.8% - 1.1% (unconditional) to 28.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2026
Active
20302035
An absolute target of -78.4 (unconditional) to -87.4 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr. An absolute target of -55.3 (unconditional) to -71.8 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.