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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Lebanon has pledged net zero emissions by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Lebanon has pledged net zero emissions by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
31Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Mar 2021AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
29Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
−1.8 – −1.4Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Lebanon has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Lebanon, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
31
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
22
Mt CO₂-eq
−27% vs 2019
2030 · projected
32
Mt CO₂-eq
+6% vs 2019
2035 · projected
27
Mt CO₂-eq
−13% vs 2019
2050 · projected
88
kt CO₂-eq
−100% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 31.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
31 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
27 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Mar 2021
A 22.0% (unconditional) to 33.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
29 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
25 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between -1.8 and -1.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
−1.8 – −1.4 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2025
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Lebanon has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Sep 2015
2030
A 15.0% (unconditional) to 30.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Feb 2020
2030
A 15.0% (unconditional) to 30.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Mar 2021
Active
2030
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 31.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2035
A 22.0% (unconditional) to 33.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Jun 2025
Active
2050
Unconditionally: An absolute target of between -1.8 and -1.4 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.