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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Japan’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 93% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Japan’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 93% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
707 – 764Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021AR4, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
559Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025AR5
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Japan has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Japan, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
1,191
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
1,051
Mt CO₂-eq
−12% vs 2019
2030 · projected
811
Mt CO₂-eq
−32% vs 2019
2035 · projected
625
Mt CO₂-eq
−47% vs 2019
2050 · projected
84
Mt CO₂-eq
−93% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 46.0–50.0% below 2013 levels.
Unconditional
707 – 764 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2021
Unconditionally: 60.0% below 2013 levels.
Unconditional
559 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025
Unconditionally: 73.0% below 2013 levels.
Unconditional
377 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Japan has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Jul 2015
2030
Unconditionally: 26.0% below 2013 levels.
NDC · Nov 2016
2030
Unconditionally: 26.0% below 2013 levels.
NDC · Mar 2020
2030
Unconditionally: 26.0% below 2013 levels.
NDC · Oct 2021
20302050
Unconditionally: 46.0–50.0% below 2013 levels. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Oct 2021
Active
20302050
Unconditionally: 46.0–50.0% below 2013 levels. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Feb 2025
Active
20352040
Unconditionally: 60.0% below 2013 levels. Unconditionally: 73.0% below 2013 levels.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Jun 2019
2050
Unconditionally: 80.0% below 2013 levels.
LT-LEDS · Oct 2021
Active
2050
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.