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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Iceland’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 60–63% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Iceland’s 2040 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 2.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 60–63% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
2.4Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5
2035 target
1.8 – 1.9Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2040 pledge: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of 2.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Iceland, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
4.8
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
4.8
Mt CO₂-eq
−1% vs 2019
2030 · projected
2.4
Mt CO₂-eq
−50% vs 2019
2035 · projected
1.9
Mt CO₂-eq
−60% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 41.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
2.4 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 62.0% and 62.0% reduction. ESR: between 50.0% and 55.0% reduction.
Unconditional
1.8 – 1.9 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between net-zero emissions and 2.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
0.0 – 2.0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2021
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Iceland has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Jun 2015
2030
Conditionally: 40.0% below 1990 levels.
NDC · Sep 2016
2030
Unconditionally: 40.0% below 1990 levels.
NDC · Feb 2021
20302040
Unconditionally: 55.0% below 1990 levels. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2030
Unconditionally: 41.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 62.0% and 62.0% reduction. ESR: between 50.0% and 55.0% reduction.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Oct 2021
Active
2040
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between net-zero emissions and 2.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.