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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Ethiopia’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions between 31% below and 24% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Ethiopia’s 2035 pledge: A 70.3% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is between 31% below and 24% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
359Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021AR4, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
141Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 20252006 IPCC Guidelines, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2023AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2035 pledge: A 70.3% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Ethiopia, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
140
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
154
Mt CO₂-eq
+10% vs 2019
2030 · projected
191
Mt CO₂-eq
+36% vs 2019
2035 · projected
97
Mt CO₂-eq
−31% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
A 14.0% (unconditional) to 68.8% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
359 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
130 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021
A 40.7% (unconditional) to 70.3% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
141 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
71 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
With support
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Jun 2023
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials. “2006 IPCC Guidelines”: the submission does not say which global warming potentials it uses.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Ethiopia has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Jun 2015
2030
Unconditionally: A 64.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Mar 2017
2030
Unconditionally: A 64.0% reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Jul 2021
Active
2030
A 14.0% (unconditional) to 68.8% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
2035
A 40.7% (unconditional) to 70.3% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Jun 2023
Active
2050
Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.