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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
Loading factsheet
NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Estonia’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 56–60% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Estonia’s 2035 pledge: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 84.0% reduction. ESR: 29.7% reduction.
For total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, that is 56–60% below 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
9.7Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2023AR5
2035 target
5.9 – 6.4Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025AR5
2050 target
Net zero
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2020AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
The 2035 pledge: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 84.0% reduction. ESR: 29.7% reduction.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Estonia, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
15
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
10
Mt CO₂-eq
−29% vs 2019
2030 · projected
9.7
Mt CO₂-eq
−34% vs 2019
2035 · projected
6.4
Mt CO₂-eq
−56% vs 2019
2050 · projected
−2.2
Mt CO₂-eq
−115% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 62.0% reduction. ESR: 24.0% reduction.
Unconditional
9.7 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2023
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 84.0% and 84.0% reduction. ESR: between 29.7% and 39.0% reduction.
Unconditional
5.9 – 6.4 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Dec 2020
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Mar 2020
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Estonia has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Mar 2015
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 43.0% reduction. ESR: 13.0% reduction.
NDC · Oct 2016
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 43.0% reduction. ESR: 13.0% reduction.
NDC · Dec 2020
Active
20302050
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 65.0% reduction. ESR: 13.0% reduction. Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
NDC · Oct 2023
Active
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 62.0% reduction. ESR: 24.0% reduction.
NDC · Nov 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 84.0% and 84.0% reduction. ESR: between 29.7% and 39.0% reduction.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Mar 2020
Active
2050
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.