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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Ecuador’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 9–57% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Ecuador’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 9–57% above 2019 levels by 2035.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2035 target
122Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Ecuador has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Ecuador, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
63
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
66
Mt CO₂-eq
+5% vs 2019
2030 · projected
81
Mt CO₂-eq
+30% vs 2019
2035 · projected
98
Mt CO₂-eq
+57% vs 2019
2050 · projected
51
Mt CO₂-eq
−19% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
A 9.0% (unconditional) to 20.9% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
74 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
65 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Mar 2019
A 7.0% (unconditional) to 15.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
Unconditional
122 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
111 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025
Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
With support
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “SAR”: gases aggregated using IPCC Second Assessment Report 100-year global warming potentials. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Ecuador has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Oct 2015
2025
20.4% - 25.0% (unconditional) to 37.5% - 45.8% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Mar 2019
Active
2025
A 9.0% (unconditional) to 20.9% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Feb 2025
Active
20352070
A 7.0% (unconditional) to 15.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions. Conditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.