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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Canada’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 87% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Canada’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 87% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
405 – 442Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
411 – 449Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025AR5
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2022AR5, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Canada has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Canada, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
749
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
687
Mt CO₂-eq
−8% vs 2019
2030 · projected
462
Mt CO₂-eq
−38% vs 2019
2035 · projected
449
Mt CO₂-eq
−40% vs 2019
2050 · projected
100
Mt CO₂-eq
−87% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: 40.0–45.0% below 2005 levels.
Unconditional
405 – 442 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Jul 2021
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between 411.5 and 449.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
411 – 449 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Feb 2025
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Oct 2022
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Canada has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · May 2015
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Oct 2016
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · May 2017
2030
Unconditionally: 30.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Jul 2021
Active
2030
Unconditionally: 40.0–45.0% below 2005 levels.
NDC · Feb 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: A custom target, approximated as: An absolute target of between 411.5 and 449.5 Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Nov 2016
2050
Unconditionally: 80.0% below 2005 levels.
LT-LEDS · Oct 2022
Active
2050
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.