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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Bulgaria’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 83% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Bulgaria’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 83% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Data release 21 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
35Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2023AR5
2035 target
23 – 25Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025AR5
2050 target
Net zero
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Mar 2020AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Bulgaria has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Bulgaria, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 21 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
54
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
43
Mt CO₂-eq
−20% vs 2019
2030 · projected
35
Mt CO₂-eq
−35% vs 2019
2035 · projected
25
Mt CO₂-eq
−54% vs 2019
2050 · projected
9.3
Mt CO₂-eq
−83% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 62.0% reduction. ESR: 10.0% reduction.
Unconditional
35 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Oct 2023
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 84.0% and 84.0% reduction. ESR: between 15.7% and 25.0% reduction.
Unconditional
23 – 25 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Nov 2025
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
Unconditional
0 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Mar 2020
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “All gases”: covers the full basket of greenhouse gases. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Bulgaria has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Mar 2015
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 43.0% reduction. ESR: 0.0% reduction.
NDC · Oct 2016
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 43.0% reduction. ESR: 0.0% reduction.
NDC · Dec 2020
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 65.0% reduction. ESR: 0.0% reduction.
NDC · Oct 2023
Active
2030
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: 62.0% reduction. ESR: 10.0% reduction.
NDC · Nov 2025
Active
2035
Unconditionally: A reduction according to the the EU ETS and ESR mechanisms. ETS: between 84.0% and 84.0% reduction. ESR: between 15.7% and 25.0% reduction.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Mar 2020
Active
2050
Unconditionally: Net zero emissions.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.