Electrification is emerging as a central pillar of the energy-system transformation needed to keep 1.5°C within reach. The COP31 Presidency has proposed a global target for electricity to reach 35% of final energy by 2035. Our analysis tests this benchmark against the latest generation of global climate scenarios. Across the current lowest-overshoot pathways, electricity’s share of global final energy rises from around 23% today to a median of 28% by 2030 and 35% by 2035. The finding is consistent with the previous generation of ambitious IPCC pathways, providing a strong evidence base for the 35% benchmark.
However, electrification cannot deliver the transition alone. The pathways also show rapid expansion of renewable electricity and declining fossil fuel use, with electrification allowing a greater share of energy demand to be met by clean electricity. Current policy settings are tracking below this trajectory, with the IEA projecting an electricity share of just under 30% by 2035. Closing the gap will require faster deployment of clean power, enabling infrastructure and investment, alongside accelerated electrification across transport, buildings and industry.