We already know that global warming will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C temporarily. Based on current pledges, we're not yet seeing the step change in ambition needed to accelerate action.
However, most major emitters have not yet submitted their 2035 NDCs. While even ambitious action from them won’t fully close the gap, our analysis shows there's a meaningful opportunity for China to take a leadership role in setting the pace for the next phase of global climate ambition. If President Xi’s remarks at the G20 last year are any indication, that possibility shouldn’t be ruled out.