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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Pledges to pathways
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NDC Quantification
Nigeria’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 10–21% above 2019 levels by 2035 with support.
Pledges to pathways
NDC Quantification
Nigeria’s latest quantified pledge puts emissions 10–21% above 2019 levels by 2035 with support.
The pledge in full: An absolute target of 536.5 (unconditional) to 388.6 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Data release 25 October 2026, reflecting the latest submissions
2030 target
537Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2035 target
534Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025AR5, incl. LULUCF
2050 target
300Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Dec 2021 · supersededAR4, incl. LULUCF
2060 target
7 – 93Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Apr 2024AR4, incl. LULUCF
These figures use each pledge’s own scope. The chart below measures every pledge the same way, so its numbers can differ. If the latest pledge has no figure for a year, we show the last pledge that did.
Pledges to pathways
Every target Nigeria has communicated, turned into an emissions pathway and set against its observed emissions.
Total greenhouse-gas emissions excl. LULUCF for Nigeria, AR6 GWP-100. Shaded bands show the range of published interpretations of each pledge.
Notes: Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.
Data as of the 25 October 2026 data release
Indicators
Observed values up to 2024. Later years follow the quantified pledge pathway.
2019
304
Mt CO₂-eq
2024
318
Mt CO₂-eq
+4% vs 2019
2030 · projected
259
Mt CO₂-eq
−15% vs 2019
2035 · projected
333
Mt CO₂-eq
+10% vs 2019
2050 · projected
322
Mt CO₂-eq
+6% vs 2019
Scope & conditionality
Coverage and conditionality are derived from our structured assessment of each submission. Each target is shown as submitted, in its own scope. The chart above measures every pledge the same way (AR6, excl. LULUCF), so its numbers can differ.
An absolute target of 539.9 (unconditional) to 405.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
537 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
403 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
An absolute target of 536.5 (unconditional) to 388.6 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Unconditional
534 Mt CO₂-eq
With support
387 Mt CO₂-eq
From the NDC submitted in Sep 2025
Conditionally: An absolute target of between 163.0 and 262.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
165 – 265 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Apr 2024
Conditionally: An absolute target of between 7.0 and 92.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
With support
7 – 93 Mt CO₂-eq
From the LT-LEDS submitted in Apr 2024
“Economy-wide”: the target covers all major sectors. “incl. LULUCF”: includes land use, land-use change and forestry. “AR5”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR5 100-year global warming potentials. “AR4”: gases aggregated using IPCC AR4 100-year global warming potentials.
Submission history
We have quantified every NDC and long-term strategy Nigeria has submitted since 2015, including the pledges it has since superseded, so the evolution of ambition reads oldest to newest.
NDCs and INDCs
INDC · Nov 2015
2030
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 45.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · May 2017
2030
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 45.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · May 2021
2030
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 45.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Jul 2021
2030
A 20.0% (unconditional) to 47.0% (conditional) reduction of emissions compared to business-as-usual emissions.
NDC · Sep 2025
Active
20302035
An absolute target of 539.9 (unconditional) to 405.3 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr. An absolute target of 536.5 (unconditional) to 388.6 (conditional) Mt CO2-e/yr.
Long-term strategies
LT-LEDS · Dec 2021
2050
Unconditionally: 50.0% below 2018 levels.
LT-LEDS · Apr 2024
Active
20502060
Conditionally: An absolute target of between 7.0 and 92.0 Mt CO2-e/yr. Conditionally: An absolute target of between 163.0 and 262.0 Mt CO2-e/yr.
We publish our quantification of each new submission within days of it reaching the UNFCCC registry.
Using the data
Climate Resource makes this data available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. We also provide data and support for commercial use, more frequent updates, metadata, analysis of changes over time and integration into your workflows. Get in touch at contact@climate-resource.com.