In light of the Glasgow COP26 conference and the global stocktake in 2023, it is about time to have another look at where countries are at with their climate targets. On the positive side, more than 70 countries now formally include long-term targets that are mostly net-zero carbon or net-zero GHG emissions. That is a remarkable trend that would be in line with a 1.5C or 2C target, if followed globally.
To bring more transparency to the table, we here set out to provide you what is likely the World's most comprehensive quantification of all the 192 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that were put forward, from the INDCs at the time of the Paris Agreement in 2015, all the way to the latest updated NDCs.
If we take all pledges into account as of 12 October 2021, plus the announcement of China to move to its more ambitious end of its 2030 NDC (i.e. 65% emission intensity improvement by 2030 below 2005), then we find that global emissions are around 54.8 +-0.5 GtCO2eq (GWP AR6) by 2030 for all unconditional pledges. That excludes 'hot air', meaning that very unambitious pledges that will likely never be reached (as they imply too high emissions) are replaced by 'do nothing' country-level reference scenarios. If we assume full implementation, i.e. including all the conditional elements of pledges, then we estimate 52.5 +-0.5 GtCO2eq by 2030. Again, including China's announcement, but excluding 'hot air'.
As emission gap, we then find 15 GtCO2eq towards the <2C scenarios in the IPCC SR1.5 database and around 24 GtCO2eq towards the scenarios that bring warming back to below 1.5C by 2100. That means that either countries substantially increase the cooperatively the world's ambitions this decade, or it will be a very cost-un-optimal pathway (with lots of stranded assets), if we rather achieve our joint 1.5C or <2C targets by a "fly over the cliff and crash" kind of trajectory.
Based on our own assessment of NDCs, we quantify the gap towards 2C scenarios as approximately 15 GtCO2 eq by 2030. Towards pathways that limit warming to 1.5C by 2100, the gap is wider, 24 GtCO2 eq. We find that the aggregate global emission levels will be 54.8 Gt CO2eq (GWP AR6) by 2030, slightly below today’s levels, if the announcement by China is taken into account and if so-called ‘hot air’ is excluded. If all the conditional parts of the NDCs are also implemented, 2030 emissions can be another 2.3 Gt CO2eq lower.
|Scenarios that limit warming to well below 2C (>66% chance)||Scenarios that limit warming to below 1.5C by 2100 (with 50% chance)|
2030 GHG emissions (GWP AR6 Gt CO2eq)
|conditional NDCs||unconditional NDCs||conditional NDCs|
At time of Paris Agreement, 2015
As of 25th October
Gap closed by progression (%)
Also, we now provide rankings of the countries in terms of some key indices, like which country will have the highest per-capita emissions in 2030, if its pledges are followed. Likewise, we show you the rankings of country's emissions in the world.
For further links and descriptions of methods and underlying data, please check out our methods page.Last Updated: 12th November 2021