Climate Resource builds tools and data visualisation platforms

.... to interrogate projections of physical impacts. We draw on data produced by large-scale widely accepted global and country specific modelling exercises of emissions projections under different shared socio-economic pathways explored by the IPCC, synthesising the results of a large number of modelling teams.

We construct tools that provide a robust and consistent basis for evaluating scenarios and physical risks as information sets evolve over time. This is a long-term issue and there are benefits to establishing a framework that can be used and updated in future years. Grounding this within the work of the international climate science and integrated assessment modelling communities ensures a coherency with other work programs related to TCFD disclosures, increasing confidence within organisations and for external analysts.

Probabilistic projections of global climate impacts

Our tools present a probabilistic assessment of the scenarios obtained from different global modelling groups to identify how individual projections sit within the modelled ranges. This enables a risk-based approach to assessing the physical risks to assets, operations, and supply chains - essential given the uncertainties we’re all navigating.

We incorporate projections from a wide range of scientific and industry sources - illustrating how up-to-date scenario analysis that is predominantly used among private sector stakeholders compares with the assessments produced by the international scientific modelling communities.

Regionally scaled probabilistic estimates of global climate models

Climate Resource provides regionally scaled estimates of the global projections to assess impacts in each decade to 2050 or 2100 scale on variables such as:

• surface air temperatures.
• sea-level rise, with adjustments for regional sea level rise
• change in precipitation
• change in windspeed

The variables used are selected to inform both chronic and acute changes. Both are important in assessing the impacts of the changes on physical assets and operations - in terms of both supply chains and demand.

These can be compared and contrasted with bottom-up estimates obtained from regional or country specific models.

Climate Resource builds tools to explore transition pathways

... for the energy system to 2050 consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C and 2C. Our tools synthesize the results of the global modelling community that informs IPCC assessments of possible energy transition scenarios under different shared socio-economic pathways, illustrating the distribution of results. We incorporate recent industry projections to illustrate where they sit within the estimates from the global community, and consider the impact of specific events, eg COVID-19.

Reduced complexity climate models & MAGICC

MAGICC is one of the world’s most used and respected reduced complexity climate models. It is extremely powerful as it is calibrated against the best Earth System Models, but is computationally efficient enough to encapsulate the uncertainties along the whole cause-effect chain from emissions to global-mean temperature and sea level rise. That is why MAGICC can be extremely useful for those interested in physical climate risks. Combined with the appropriate regional approaches, it can provide the basis for proper risk management. Rather than putting all your trust into a single model with a best-estimate projection, MAGICC can provide probabilistic projections that truly reflect current scientific uncertainties. Practically all previous IPCC Assessment Reports since the 1990s made use of it - and so will also the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report. Our team of Malte, Zeb and Jared is the core development team behind the latest versions of MAGICC since 2004. While at different institutions, we developed, expanded and built MAGICC.

NDC quantification and UNFCCC negotiations

Our team has also long-standing experience with emission scenarios and quantification of the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. Not only did we publish some of the leading scientific publications related to the international climate negotiations, our team members also have decades of joint experience working as national government scientific advisors, consultants for UN institutions and non-governmental bodies. Part of these consultancy works are often our intimate knowledge and in-house emission databases and modelling tools. Previously, our team members established internationally renowned resources like the Paris Equity Check, Mitigation Contributions or the NDC factsheets.

Emissions databases

Alongside our climate modelling capability, Climate Resource also compiles a number of key emissions databases from the climate research community. These are based on the emissions databases provided with the IPCC Assessment Reports and allow any emissions pathway to be easily put in the context of the ‘cloud of possibility’ arising from the modelling done in support of the IPCC Assessment Reports.

CMIP6 data analysis

The founders of Climate Resource led the development of a new CMIP6 data analysis tool. Supported by University of Melbourne researchers, this tool puts output from the world’s most sophisticated climate models (collectively known as CMIP6 climate models) in the hands of the public, without the need for expert big data knowledge.