By joining more than 80 other countries in signing the Belém Declaration on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, the Australian government has affirmed its commitment to a 1.5°C-aligned shift away from fossil fuels, guided by the best available science. As governments advance the global fossil-fuel road-map discussions and lock in their long-term decarbonisation trajectories through 2035 targets, Australia faces a contraction in global demand for its thermal and metallurgical coal. Our new analysis shows that Australia’s thermal coal exports could fall by as much as 64–98% by 2035, and metallurgical coal exports by 28–78% while domestic coal use is also rapidly diminishing. The report reminds us that the change in demand in export markets will dictate the rate of phase-out of Australian coal production, rather than Australian government policy. These findings support the recommendation for a proactive coal phase-out strategy and regional transition planning, without which Australia risks economic disruption and missed clean-energy opportunities.
Read the full report here.
A 2-page summary is here.