Australia has committed internationally to transition away from fossil fuels, but has no timeline for doing it. Phasing out Australia’s fossil fuel industry tests what the most ambitious 1.5°C pathways would mean for Australia’s coal, gas and oil, covering both exports and Australia’s own use. On those pathways, thermal coal exits first, between 2034 and 2039, followed by gas (2037–2049, with LNG under existing contracts ending in 2042), metallurgical coal (2042–2050) and oil (2050–2067). Exports go first. Customers set the pace, and those with their own mines, such as China and India, cut imports first. The exit could come sooner still, as shared railways, ports and pipelines become too costly to run. The findings are one input, not the final word, because a timeline also has to weigh justice and equity. The method can give any producing country the timelines to feed into the COP30 Presidency’s new framework for national roadmaps. Read the short brief or the full report here.
Date Published: November 2026
Phasing out Australia’s fossil fuel industry
What 1.5°C pathways mean for Australia’s coal, gas and oil
